GBP flows: GBP recovers on stronger GDP

May 10, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

UK GDP rises a better than expected 0.6% in Q1, but breakdown looks suspicious. Nevertheless, GBP likely to hold firm short term

GBP flows: GBP weakens as 2 MPC members vote for a rate cut

May 9, 2024 11:19 AM UTC

UK rates left unchanged, but deputy governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for a cut.

GBP flows: GBP benefiting from risk positive tone

April 25, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

GBP rising this morning in general risk positive market. BHP-Anglo takeover deal unlikely to be relevant

GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, scope for risk recovery

April 19, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

UK retail sales remain quite flat, GBP little affected. Risk sell off overnight may be further reversed with tension dissipated

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: USD softer as yields dip

April 18, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD corrected lower with US yields overnight. Little news scheduled today but Fed speakers could drive trade. GBP softer after Bailey comments

GBP flows: GBP firmer after CPI inflation falls less than expected

April 17, 2024 6:17 AM UTC

EUR/GBP dipping to test 0.8530 support after stronger than expected CPI, but downside looks limited ahead of Bailey speech this evening

GBP flows: GBP softer after labour market data

April 16, 2024 6:31 AM UTC

Earnings data broadly in line with consensus, but employment data showing clearer weakness suggests upside risks for EUR/GBP

GBP flows: GBP stays soft after retail sales data

March 22, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

GBP stays on the back foot after retail sales data shows little change in underlying trends. 

GBP flows: GBP slightly softer after UK MPC leaves rates on hold

March 21, 2024 12:23 PM UTC

GBP has weakened modestly as BoE leaves rates unchanged with an 8-1 vote. Two hawks from the February meeting now voting for no change

GBP flows: GBP little changed after CPI

March 20, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

UK February CPI slightly softer than expected, but still strong services inflation makes it unliekly BoE hawks will turn dovish

GBP flows: GBP steady after GDP but risks on the downside

March 13, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

GBP not much changed after GDP comes in in line with consensus, but underlying picture remains weak

GBP flows: GBP softer after Labour market data

March 12, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

GBP softer after earnings data shows weakness and unemployment rises. Scope above 0.8550 in EUR/GBP

GBP flows: GBP little changed after as expected budget

March 6, 2024 1:50 PM UTC

Modest NI cut as expected, funded by tax hikes elsehwere. UK yields slightly higher but limited GBP impact

EUR,GBP flows: EUR and GBP supported after PMIs

February 22, 2024 9:42 AM UTC

Stronger European PMIs sustain risk positive tone

GBP flows: GBP downside risks on BoE testimony

February 20, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

BoE testimony may well be more dovish in view of recent developments, suggesting GBP downside risks

GBP flows: GBP rallies modestly as retail sales bounce

February 16, 2024 7:21 AM UTC

January retail sales reversed the December decline, but the data tells us little and GBP still looks biased lower after this week's data

GBP flows: GBP downside risks after weak GDP

February 15, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Revisions lead to lager than expected 0.3% decline in UK Q4 GDP, suggesting downside risks for GBP

GBP flows: GBP slightly lower after softer CPI

February 14, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

UK January CPI slightly softer than expected, but y/y unchanged from December and data unlikely to change BoE stance

GBP flows: GBP up on slightly stronger labour market data

February 13, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Earnnigs growth slightly on the strong side and unemployment rate diown, but GBP upside still quite limited

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after BoE

February 1, 2024 12:14 PM UTC

Split MPC vote, but higher inflaiton forecast hows Bank doesn't see more rapid easing than the market

EUR, USD, GBP flows: Eurozone CPI unlikely to have much impact - focus on Fed and BoE

January 31, 2024 9:19 AM UTC

French and German CPI broadly in line with consensus, but EUR moves against the USD and GBP likely to be driven more by the Fed and BoE

GBP flows: GBP softer after weak retail sales

January 19, 2024 7:29 AM UTC

December retail sales data showed the largest one month fall since 2008 (excluding the pandemic). GBP is weaker, but only modestly, and further declines look justified

GBP flows: GBP gains after stronger than expected CPI numbers

January 17, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

EUR/GBP edged below 0.86 as CPI comes in above expectations, but downside scope for EUR/GBP remains quite limited

GBP flows: GBP firms after UK labour market data

January 16, 2024 7:33 AM UTC

EUR/GBP is modestly higher after the UK labour market data, which could be seen as mixed but crucially saw a decline in the growth of average earnings in the official ONS data for the 3 months to November. While the more up to date (and possibly more accurate) HMRC data for December showed a small i

GBP flows: GBP up small on better than expected GDP, but...

January 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

GBP is initially slightly firmer after November GDP came in at 0.3% - slightly above the 0.2% expected. However, the 3m/3m trend is still weak after October’s 0.3% decline, and while a flat quarter is likely, a flat December would only mean a flat quarter because of rounding. The trend appears to

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Sentiment Remain GBP Negative

December 21, 2023 8:50 AM UTC

GBP has stabilised against the EUR, but the tone remains mild negative with Wednesday’a much weaker than expected UK CPI data having prompted the money market to price in close to six 25bps rate cuts in 2024.  Traders feel that GBP can drift out versus EUR, though some also note Thursday comments

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: CPI Trigger BOE Spring Rate Cut Hopes

December 20, 2023 7:17 AM UTC

GBP has fallen after the much lower than expected UK CPI figure, with the ONS indicating that it was driven by eight sub categories.  The sharp decline in core CPI from 5.7% to 5.1%, will provide comfort in itself to the BOE but will also raise questions whether UK inflation is slowing more quickly

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Focus on PMIs after hawkish European central bank statements

December 15, 2023 7:59 AM UTC

A relatively quiet overnight session sees most of the majors return to Europe little changed from Thursday closing levels. The clearly hawkish tone from the ECB and the BoE has given European currencies a boost, and the bounce is likely to be sustained as long as risk appetite remains positive. The

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: GBP gains as BoE remains relatively hawkish

December 14, 2023 12:14 PM UTC

The Bank of England have left rates unchanged, but the decision was only carried 6-3 once again, with the three hawks continuing to vote for a rate hike. This has pulled GBP higher in response, with EUR/GBP dropping around 20 pips, as UK 2 year yields have moved around 5 pips higher. This only parti

EUR/GBP flows: GBP down on weak UK GDP but can fall further

December 13, 2023 7:29 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected UK GDP in October has sent GBP lower, although the initial reaction has been quite modest. EUR/GBP has popped above 0.86, but we suspect there are more gains to come as the 0.3% decline in GDP is likely to impact expectations of Q4 GDP as a whole and convince at least one o

EUR/GBP flows: GBP edges lower after soft labour market data

December 12, 2023 7:36 AM UTC

The UK labour market data is modestly on the weak side of expectations. Average earnings growth was below expectations both excluding and particularly including bonuses. The claimant count rose again, and the more up to date HMRC data showed a decline in employment and a further decline in pay growt