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April 29, 2024
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April PPI - New Year strength fading
April 29, 2024 6:08 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in April’s PPI, with gains of 0.2% in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would match March’s outcome which slowed from above trend gains in January and February.
UK Consumers: Rent the Growing Hit to Spending Power
April 29, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
The UK has faced a series of cost-of-living shocks in the last few years. Some such as the surge in food prices may even be reversing, while it now looks likely the BoE hiking cycle may also start to reverse, although rising market rates may mean little further fall in effective mortgage rates in
China: Depreciation Rather Than Devaluation
April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
German Data Review: Inflation Edges up Amid Less Resilient Services and Core Rate?
April 29, 2024 12:38 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month. Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - Another rise, but a slower one
April 29, 2024 12:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.3% in February, slightly below a 0.4% estimate that was made with January’s report, where a strong 0.6% monthly increase was seen, flattered by the end of public sector strikes. We expect preliminary indications for March to be near flat.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Trend slowing, but still quite firm
April 29, 2024 12:12 PM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, matching the Q4 increase that was the slowest since Q1 2021. Yr/yr growth will continue to slow, to 3.9% from 4.2%, reaching its slowest since Q3 2021, but will remain well above the pre-pandemic trend.
Indonesia: MPC Review: Bank Indonesia Surprises With A Rate Hike
April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur
April 28, 2024
April 26, 2024
Argentina: Activity is Shrinking but that is the Price to Stabilize
April 26, 2024 5:52 PM UTC
The INDEC data for February reveals a 0.2% economic shrinkage, signalling a 5.1% drop since August 2023, potentially leading to a Q1 2024 recession. High inflation and fiscal adjustments are primary causes. Some foresee 0% April inflation due to price realignment and stable ARS. Despite low reserves
Brazil: Credit Decelerating Amid Tighter Conditions
April 26, 2024 1:21 PM UTC
Despite the BCB's initiation of the cutting cycle, credit is anticipated to decelerate due to monetary policy lags. Enterprises face the most significant impact, with nominal growth dropping to 4.1% in February from 12.1% a year prior. While household credit growth slows to 10.4% annually from 17%,
CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16%
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4
U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Q1 totals confirmed, Core PCE Prices provide some relief
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending data confirms the Q1 totals released with the GDP report. Core PCE prices at 0.3% provide some relief by avoiding the 0.4% implied by Q1’s stronger than expected 3.7% annualized rise. March rose by 0.317% before rounding with revisions to February (to 0.266%