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April 29, 2024
UK Consumers: Rent the Growing Hit to Spending Power
April 29, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
The UK has faced a series of cost-of-living shocks in the last few years. Some such as the surge in food prices may even be reversing, while it now looks likely the BoE hiking cycle may also start to reverse, although rising market rates may mean little further fall in effective mortgage rates in
China: Depreciation Rather Than Devaluation
April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
April 28, 2024
April 26, 2024
Brazil: Credit Decelerating Amid Tighter Conditions
April 26, 2024 1:21 PM UTC
Despite the BCB's initiation of the cutting cycle, credit is anticipated to decelerate due to monetary policy lags. Enterprises face the most significant impact, with nominal growth dropping to 4.1% in February from 12.1% a year prior. While household credit growth slows to 10.4% annually from 17%,
April 25, 2024
FOMC Preview For May 1: Signaling Concern on Inflation, Tapering Quantitative Tightening
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist
Q1 U.S. GDP Slows on Imports and Inventories, Core PCE Prices Stronger on the Quarter
April 25, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Q4 GDP has come in weaker than expected at 1.6% annualized but with a stronger than expected 3.7% annualized increase in the core PCE price index. Weaker inventories and stronger imports are the main reason for the GDP slowing so the data is not a clear signal of underlying weakness. Lower initial (
Norges Bank Preview: Nothing New to Note?
April 25, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
Surprising few, the Norges Bank Board is very likely to leave its policy rate at 4.5% for a third successive meeting when it gives it next verdict on May 3. It is also likely to retain the thinking first aired at the December meeting, namely the ‘policy to stay on hold for some time ahead’ rhe
April 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
Brazil: Wage Inflation Will Likely Not Be a Big Deal
April 24, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
Our analysis delves into recent trends in the Brazilian labor market, focusing on CPI and wage inflation. Utilizing a model akin to Ghomi et al. (2024) and Blanchard and Bernanke (2023), we dissect recent spikes in wage inflation and CPI growth. Notably, our findings suggest that recent wage spikes
Preview: Due April 25 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Slower but Still Healthy With Stronger Core PCE Prices
April 24, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, significantly slower than the second half of 2023 but slightly stronger than the first half and still a heathy pace of growth. We expect a pick up in the core PCE price index to 3.4% annualized after two straight quarters at 2.0%.
Sticky Inflation Causes Concerns over the Horizon
April 24, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 23, the risk of higher inflation still remains and inflation returning to the midpoint of the target band is only expected in the last quarter of 2025. SARB highlighted in its report that ma
April 23, 2024
EZ HICP Preview (Apr 30): Core Disinflation Signs to Flatten Out Further?
April 23, 2024 9:43 AM UTC
Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This continued in the March HICP numbers, with the 0.2 ppt drops in both headline and core being a notch more sizeable than most anticipated. Regardless,