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FOMC Preview For May 1: Signaling Concern on Inflation, Tapering Quantitative Tightening
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
U.S. March Retail Sales allow Q1 to come in marginally positive despite a weak start in January
April 15, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
March retail sales with a 0.7% increase have exceeded expectations despite an expected negative contribution from autos, with sales up by 1.1% both ex autos and in the control group that contributes to GDP, and by 1.0% ex autos and gasoline. This suggest continued consumer momentum entering Q2.
Banxico Minutes: Hawkish Cut and Different Views
April 5, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Banxico's recent meeting minutes reveal a split among board members regarding monetary policy, with a 25bps rate cut to 11.0%. Despite progress in curbing inflation, differing views on policy direction persist. Inflation expectations deviate from targets, with potential risks in fiscal policy and wa
Canada March Employment - A weak month after two solid ones
April 5, 2024 1:35 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.2k decline in March employment is weaker than expected though needs to be seen alongside strong gains of 40.7k in February and 37.7k in January. The 3-month average of 25k is above the 6-month average of 22k. However with the labor force rising unemployment is trending higher, March’s
Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
Preview: Due April 16 - Canada March CPI - Correction after two soft months
April 15, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to move higher to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% in February and 2.9% in January, with the monthly data likely to look quite firm after two soft months. However we do expect some modest progress lower in two of the three BoC’s core rates.
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April PPI - New Year strength fading
April 29, 2024 6:08 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in April’s PPI, with gains of 0.2% in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would match March’s outcome which slowed from above trend gains in January and February.
Mexico GDP Preview: Stagnation in the First Quarter
April 29, 2024 5:22 PM UTC
INEGI will release Mexico's Preliminary GDP data, indicating 0% growth in Q1, likely due to stagnation in key sectors like manufacturing and construction. The service sector, hit hard by the pandemic, also shows signs of sluggishness. While recovery is expected, sustained poor growth raises concerns
UK Consumers: Rent the Growing Hit to Spending Power
April 29, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
The UK has faced a series of cost-of-living shocks in the last few years. Some such as the surge in food prices may even be reversing, while it now looks likely the BoE hiking cycle may also start to reverse, although rising market rates may mean little further fall in effective mortgage rates in
Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Push Up CPI in April
April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation.
China: Depreciation Rather Than Devaluation
April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
Growth Gains But Inflation Pains: RBI's view on Indian Economy
April 29, 2024 12:42 PM UTC
Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy committee meeting revealed a nuanced outlook blending optimism regarding India's growth trajectory with apprehensions surrounding inflationary risks. While upbeat macroeconomic indicators paint a favourable picture, the committee re
German Data Review: Inflation Edges up Amid Less Resilient Services and Core Rate?
April 29, 2024 12:38 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month. Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - Another rise, but a slower one
April 29, 2024 12:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.3% in February, slightly below a 0.4% estimate that was made with January’s report, where a strong 0.6% monthly increase was seen, flattered by the end of public sector strikes. We expect preliminary indications for March to be near flat.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Trend slowing, but still quite firm
April 29, 2024 12:12 PM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, matching the Q4 increase that was the slowest since Q1 2021. Yr/yr growth will continue to slow, to 3.9% from 4.2%, reaching its slowest since Q3 2021, but will remain well above the pre-pandemic trend.
Indonesia: MPC Review: Bank Indonesia Surprises With A Rate Hike
April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur