USD/CHF-Commentary

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April 15, 2024

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm on retail sales, JPY under pressure
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April 15, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Stronger thna expected retail sales keep the USD well bid. JPY under pressure but risk of intervention rising.

April 04, 2024

CHF, AUD, JPY flows: CHF lower after CPI
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April 4, 2024 6:59 AM UTC

Another big downside miss in Swiss CPI weighs on the CHF

March 26, 2024

USD flows: USD firmer after durable goods orders data
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March 26, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

USD generally firmer after durable goods orders come idn a tad above consensus, but underlying picture is of risk positive FX moves

March 21, 2024

CHF flows: CHF drops sharply on SNB rate cut
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March 21, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

The SNB cut the policy rate 25bps. This was only seen as an outise chance before the meeting so the CHF has weakened and is likely to remain under pressure, although valuation only looks dramatically out of line against the JPY

December 29, 2023

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF flows: CHF back to Yesterday Highs
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December 29, 2023 10:40 AM UTC

EUR/CHF has moved back down to yesterday lows and helped to provide strength for the CHF across the board.  However, it is difficult to see the move lasting fundamentally.  Though the SNB is expected to cut rates less than the ECB next year, the SNB decision to stop FX sales at the December meetin

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows: JPY down and CHF up, but
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December 29, 2023 9:06 AM UTC

Europe has started off with a move lower on the JPY against the USD and EUR, while in contrast the CHF has moved higher against the EUR and across the board.  However, this is not news driven but rather flow driven and traders find it difficult to see long lasting meaning in the moves.  The mood i

December 28, 2023

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows: USD off the Lows
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December 28, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

The USD then bounced off the low, as global bond yields drifted higher on a sense that the November/December optimism could be getting ahead of the Fed. Additionally, some U.S. money market tightening before year end also helped lift the USD off the lows.  Finally, USDCHF stalled before 0.8320, whi

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows: Consolidation after Claims
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December 28, 2023 2:00 PM UTC

After the post-Christmas USD losses, it would be normal to see some consolidation, but end of year USD selling in thin conditions could still move the USD says traders.  Focus on USD/JPY and USD/CHF into the New Year, though EUR/CHF is now getting to levels that could see SNB smoothing intervention

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF flows: USD/CHF Leads the Europeans
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December 28, 2023 8:19 AM UTC

European trading has seen a soft start for the USD, as sentiment and end of year flows keep the USD on the defensive.  While the main short-term focus is the Asia surge in the JPY, the USD also remains soft against European majors.  Once again USDCHF is moving ahead of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with EURC

December 27, 2023

EUR/USD, USD/CHF flows: Fed Rate Cuts More Important
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December 27, 2023 8:05 AM UTC

EUR/USD has been stable in early European trading, but the tone remains USD negative. The low core U.S. November PCE inflation has cemented Fed rate cut hopes, with a 93% probability of a 25bps cut at the March 20 FOMC meeting.  Though the money markets are discounting the same amount of Fed and EC