RGE Monitor - Weekly Roundup
RGE Analyst Team
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Nov 6, 2009
Check out all the great contributions that were published during the past week on RGE’s Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Finance & Markets Monitor, Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Global Macro EconoMonitor, U.S. EconoMonitor, Emerging Markets Monitor, Asia EconoMonitor, Latin America EconoMonitor and Europe EconoMonitor. On Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel provides detailed analysis on how the weakness of the dollar along with near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing are fueling a correlated bubble across global asset classes, which is getting bigger by the day. Nouriel provides a number of reasons for why and how these carry trades can unravel and cautions policy makers that the bigger the bubble the bigger the crash. Please read Mother of all Carry Trades Faces an Inevitable Bust. Don’t miss Nouriel’s CNBC Interview Discussing Carry Trades and Asset Bubbles.
On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Arpitha Bykere and Elisa Parisi-Capone analyze the administration’s policies on regulatory reform, housing sector programs and fiscal stimulus. They also highlight the challenges for President Obama going forward, including addressing the fiscal deficit and entitlement burden and passing the healthcare legislation. Please read One Year after Obama’s Election: Regulatory and Fiscal Challenges. In Too-Big-To-Fail: Regulatory Reforms of Systemically Important Institutions, Elisa Parisi-Capone considers the initiatives currently on the table to deal with the too-big-to-fail problem. The options range from break-up—which is the one favored by Nouriel Roubini—to stricter regulation and setting the right incentives. While the debate goes on among regulators and academics, the European Competition authority has taken action and ordered the divestment of significant parts of ING, RBS and Lloyds since their bailout packages were deemed to have given them an unfair advantage under State Aid rules. In Nigerian Oil: Delta Ceasefire, Political Bottlenecks, Lee Hudson Teslik examines what the Delta peace initiative and Nigeria’s push for oil industry regulatory reform will mean for Nigerian output and for international oil companies operating in the country.
On the Finance & Markets Monitor, Rick Bookstaber debates whether innovation promotes economic growth and considers the impact of financial innovation over the past 10-15 years arguing that “just because we are able to take some cash flow and turn it into an instrument doesn’t mean we should.” Please read Does Financial Innovation Promote Economic Growth? In Please, Listen to the Lady! Daniel Alpert notes that Sheila Bair, Chairwoman of the FDIC, continues to prove that she has the best interest of the country and the banking system at heart as she advocates for important reforms like funding the proposed resolution fund during fat times. In How Goldman Bet on a Housing Crash, Barry Ritholtz points out the obvious conflicts of interest in the practice of financial companies that decide to market a financial product, which they consider to be a loser, to unsuspecting customers without sharing their real opinion of the product. But is it criminal? Also on the Finance & Markets Monitor: The Cruel Basic Mathethematics of Losses by Barry Ritholtz Uh-Oh: Economists Say Recovery, Market Gains Solid by Barry Ritholtz Wood Warns of Correction, Says “Key Variable in the West is Government Policy” by Edward Harrison The Return of Mixed Results by James Picerno
On the Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Michael Mussa, a former student and professor at the University of Chicago, sits down with Steve Weisman and assesses the influence - for good and for ill – of economics as espoused at the University of Chicago. Please read Is the “Chicago School” to Blame in the Economic Crisis? In Latvia, Lithuania, and the IMF, Anders Aslund compares how the financial crisis has been handled by these countries, which appear to be facing very similar conundrums.
On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, Mark Thoma presents a piece by Mikhail Gorbachev who claims that the global crisis was necessary to recognize the organic defects of the present model of western development, which he believes was imposed on the rest of the world as the only one possible, and pushes for drastic democratic reform. Thoma adds that the failure of the market-based development model as well as the success of countries with different development models like China has undermined the faith in traditional market-based development strategies. See The Berlin Wall Had to Fall, But Today's World is No Fairer. In Do Smart, Hard-Working People Deserve to Make More Money? James Kwak recognizes that financial success often depends on luck and chance and questions why the unlucky deserve less. In Sustainable Growth? Tim Duy argues that while the GDP report confirms that the recession has come to an end, the drivers of the boost are potentially unsustainable, and thus he isn’t breathing easy yet. In The Hubris of Economics, Barry Ritholtz provides a rational look at some of the problems with the field of economics.
On the U.S. EconoMonitor, Robert Reich points out that if the goal is to help the most Americans in a time of need, perhaps our priorities need to be refocused. Read Health Care Reform is Critically Important, But Getting Americans Back to Work is More So. In Another Crack in Republic’s Foundations: Not the Size of the Debt, But When it’s Due, Fabius Maximus shrewdly explains the different scenarios that are possible with regards to short-term and long-term bonds, and how the former makes the solvency of the government that much more vulnerable. In Roubini Predicts “Mother of All Carry Trade Unwinds”, Yves Smith pushes the conversation on how the weak dollar is the funding currency for risky carry trades that are blowing asset bubbles. Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor: Bullish Data, Recoveries, Crashes and the Psychology of Forecasting Redux by Edward Harrison Five Myths About Our Land of Opportunity by Mark Thoma On Revisions and on Conditioning by Menzie Chinn Tax Cuts and Recoveries by Mark Thoma How Obama Can Convince Congress to Enact a Larger Stimulus, and Why He Must by Robert Reich
On the Emerging Markets Monitor, Michael Pettis is still negative about global imbalances despite positive GDP numbers coming out of the U.S. because he sees the drivers of growth to be unsustainable. He argues that rebalancing is going to happen one way or another, but pushes for less Chinese investment in infrastructure and more distribution of wealth to Chinese households, because it is consumption growth that powers economies over the long term. Please read What Rebalancing of Chinese and American Consumption?
On the Asia EconoMonitor, Anoop Singh examines how it is that Asia has rebounded sooner and more strongly than the rest of the globe from the economic slump when the region is so heavily dependent on exports for its growth. See The Puzzle of Asia’s Rapid Rebound. In Looking back at Indira Gandhi, Ajay Shah presents a piece that takes a look at recent history and provides 5 lessons for today’s Congress in India.
On the Europe EconoMonitor, Simon Johnson reports that pressure from the EU and voices within the Bank of England have pushed the government to begin a process to restructure the banking system. See Britain To Break Up Biggest Banks. In Trouble in Ireland as Fitch Cuts Debt Two Notches to AA- and Deficits Soar, as the news gets progressively worse out of Ireland, Edward Harrison asks again whether Ireland is the next Iceland.
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