RGE Monitor - Weekly Roundup
RGE Analyst Team
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Oct 30, 2009
Check out all the great contributions that were published during the past week on RGE’s Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Finance & Markets Monitor, Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Global Macro EconoMonitor, U.S. EconoMonitor, Emerging Markets Monitor, Asia EconoMonitor, Latin America EconoMonitor and Europe EconoMonitor. On Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel discusses the seriousness of global imbalances, which raise the risks considerably of future financial crises and asset bubbles. While this financial crisis has temporarily reduced the magnitude of the global imbalances, it would be a mistake to assume that rebalancing is taking place naturally. Please read A Balanced Global Diet. In U.S. Real GDP Growth: Should We Really Get Excited? Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti react to the Q3 U.S. GDP report and analyze the shape of the recovery and the outlook for the U.S. consumer. As Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, Nouriel warns that we have “the mother of all carry trades.” See Bloomberg's Reporting of my Remarks... Nouriel also discusses the state of the economy, the dollar’s weakness, the prospect of gold, and fixing the banks at My Morning Interviews/Videos with CNBC's Squawk Box. Also see Bloomberg Reports Roubini in Good Company as Investor with Most Wisdom.
On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, RGE Analysts take a closer look at which countries are most likely to implement capital controls following Brazil’s actions on October 20. The article points out that capital controls and other forms of intervention are ineffective at reverting appreciative forces on the currencies, but they can ease the pace. Please read Are Capital Controls in Fashion Again? In Pakistan’s Surging Violence: How Big a Risk? Kavitha Cherian and Arpitha Bykere throw light on the political and security vulnerabilities Pakistan faces in the wake of recent terrorist attacks. Instability in Pakistan has broad ramifications on regional security given Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and has increased pressure on the fragile civilian government. Additionally the sustained military operations have weighed on Pakistan's economic growth during 2008-09 and slowed policy implementation putting Pakistan’s balance of payments at risk. In If Infrastructure Investment is Hot, Why Can’t Funds Raise Money? Monika Brown notes that business boomed over the past decade for unlisted infrastructure funds as private investment, mostly by pension funds, in infrastructure projects grew. However, fund raising by unlisted infrastructure funds slowed to a relative trickle in 2009, despite no change in allocation to these investments by pension funds. What's the reason for the sudden change of interest in the infrastructure funds?
On the Finance & Markets Monitor, Joseph Mason sheds light on the complexities of the corporate governance industry, which was believed to be related to firm performance. The depths of this recession has elicited a call for financial regulation and a restructuring of financial instruments, but the risks of “getting it wrong” are serious and could affect U.S. economic performance and competitiveness. Don’t miss What if Regulating Executive Pay Doesn’t Work? A Brief Primer on the Limits to Knowledge in Corporate Governance Research. In The Next Step in the Bank Explosion Cycle??? Reggie Middleton expounds on the currency risk of the “mother of all carry trades” as some of the largest and most respected banks in the world are heavily leveraged into this trade in one way or another. In trying to answer Why Do Bankers Make So Much Money? Rick Bookstaber considers whether banks operate in a competitive market and whether workers get paid commensurately with their talent. Also on the Finance & Markets Monitor: Why Wall Street Reform is Stuck in Reverse by Robert Reich Richard Berstein: Once a Huge Market Bear, Now a Bull by Edward Harrison Too Big to Fail: Why The Big Banks Should Be Broken Up, But Why The White House and Congress Don't Want To by Robert Reich The Private-Sector Solution to the Bonus Problem by Models & Agents What a Tangled Web Mortgage Securitizers Weave… by Barry Ritholtz Gold Market – Accident Waiting to Happen or Crime Scene? by Prieur du Plessis Patchwork Fixes, Conflicting Motives, And Other Things To Avoid: Some Lessons From the Regulated Non-Financial Sectors by Simon Johnson Jeremy Grantham: The Market is 25% Overvalued; 15% Correction Coming by Edward Harrison
On the Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim examine the nexus of the WTO and climate change. Please read The World Trade Organization and Climate Change: Challenges and Options
On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, Yves Smith presents a piece by Richard Alford that speaks to the fact that the G20 and Bernanke do not appear to have established anything in the current or promised policy mix that will actually address the global imbalance issue, and therefore a return to unstable global imbalances seems inevitable. See Guest Post: Global Rebalancing: The G20 and Bernanke Versions, In Reserve Accumulation and Easy Money Helped to Cause the Subprime Crisis, Mark Thoma presents interesting analysis from Guillermo Calvo who sketches an outline of a theoretical framework to explain the crisis and presents the real sector impact as well as policy implications.
On the U.S. EconoMonitor, James Hamilton argues that regardless of your interpretation of how this financial crisis arose, it would have made far more sense to address these problems with proper regulatory supervision prior to the crisis instead of targeted liquidity operations after the crisis unfolds, and asserts that such unconventional operations should not be part of the central bank’s arsenal of tools in the future. Please read Evaluating the New Tool of Monetary Policy. In Tax Credits, Screwdrivers, and Supply and Demand Curves, James Kwak uncovers who the homebuyer tax credit is really helping. David E. Altig makes a compelling argument for The Growing Case for a Jobless Recovery. Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor: Why State and Local Governments Need More Stimulus Funds by Mark Thoma Breakdown of Single Family Homes by Price by Barry Ritholtz Case Shiller: Home Prices Fall More Slowly by Barry Ritholtz Searching for the Ghost of Tom Joad Amidst the Financial Crisis by J Clinton Hill Has the US Financial System been Nationalized? by Fabius Maximus
On the Emerging Markets Monitor, Heiko Hesse and Tigran Poghosyan provide the first empirical evidence linking oil prices to bank performance in oil-exporting economies, which suggests that easily observed oil prices could inform macro-prudential regulation in these countries and mitigate pro-cyclical bank lending. See Oil Prices and Bank Profitability: Evidence from Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
On the Asia EconoMonitor, Rumi Malott Morales discusses the turf war on the field of ASEAN between Japan and Australia about the role of the U.S. in the region, while China is focusing its energy on winning friends through investment and infrastructure development in Asia and is prepared to assume the regional leadership mantle currently abandoned by the U.S. Please read The Dragon in the Alphabet Soup. In Chinese Railways and Speculating Pig Farmers, despite last week’s excellent economic numbers and the subsequent cheerleading by many, Michael Pettis continues to stress his concerns over investment that doesn’t make economic sense, unemployment for college grads, currency intervention between trade surplus countries, and the potential for asset bubbles.
On the Latin America EconoMonitor, Nicolas Eyzaguirre discusses the benefits of having “fiscal space” and highlights the value of strengthening fiscal policy frameworks in the future, so that all countries can be better prepared for future episodes of unfavorable conditions. Read Latin America and the Caribbean: Finding Space for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy.
On the Europe EconoMonitor, Edward Harrison puts forward an answer for why London housing prices can be on the rise while the rest of the economy is surprisingly contracting. See If the UK Economy is Still in Recession, why are London House Prices Hitting New Records? Don’t miss Edward Hugh’s in-depth analysis of the economic data out of France, Germany, and Spain in the following: The French Rebound Continues In October While Germany Moves Sideways Beyond the Consensus on European Bank Credit
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