For the last year, Bob Shiller and I have been alternating each month in writing a column for Project Syndicate (a syndication service that published such columns in hundreds of newspapers around the world). I am now contributing to this column – entitled “After the Storm” - on a monthly basis. My latest column was written in about a month ago in mid-June when asset markets – equities, credit and commodities – were still bubbly and rallying as they had been since March 9^th.

I pointed out in that column that markets had moved up too fast too soon relative to market fundamentals and that a significant correction of this bear market rally was likely to occur soon as the alleged green shoots would likely turn into yellow weeds. Since then U.S. and global equity markets – including in emerging market economies – have started to head south; oil and other commodity prices have started to fall; credit spreads have started to widen again; and emerging markets equity markets have corrected more than those of advanced economies. Indeed the excessive optimism about spring green shoots have shown them to be mostly summer yellow weeds that may actually turn into brown manure by late 2010 after a minor economic recovery in the first half of 2010. Indeed, the June US employment report last week has brought back a reality check after the misplaced euphoria of the second quarter.

For those of you who missed this column a month ago here it is in full text: