Can OPEC Stem the Downward trend?
Rachel Ziemba
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Oct 23, 2008
UPDATE: As anticipated, OPEC cut production in its October 24 Meeting. OPEC agreed to reduce production from its output ceiling by 1.5 million barrels a day from where it is currently set at 28.8 barrels a day. OPEC has been producing well over this quota for much of the summer and fall - so the reduction could be even larger. However as suggested in the piece below, written Oct 23, the prospect of even weaker demand as the economic climate worsens and the effects of wealth losses sink in, continued to push oil, other commodities and global equities downward. As of first thing this morning, Equities had one of their worst days with many markets halting trading - including the S&P futures. OPEC may be unable to stop the downward trend in prices given that global recession is reducing demand and oil is one of the many assets that few people want to hold. At a minimum no increase in demand for oil as a financial asset is likely until financial markets stabilize. Furthermore, OPEC will want to be careful not to further erode demand. More cuts seem likely at OPEC's December meeting and expect to hear more concerns about the financial factors not 'fundamentals' affecting the oil price. Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
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