Savings is still something other countries do
Brad Setser
|
Jul 28, 2005
Which is good, because it looks like the US will need more of the world's savings to finance a pick up in investment. The US housing market. Still strong. Record sales of new homes in June. US residential investment. Presumably still strong. It certainly is driving the economy: Residential investment amounted to $710 billion at an annual rate in the first quarter of this year, accounting for six-tenths of a percentage point of the 3.8 percent growth rate for the economy. US business investment. May be picking up. Business investment in new equipment is speeding up after companies limited their orders to work off excess stockpiles from the first quarter, economists said I don't think there is much evidence that consumption growth is slowing. Some of the surge in demand for durable goods comes from exports, but a lot of it is coming from inside the US. Strong consumption growth implies no growth in household savings. All this good news for the US economy looks set to generate a further expansion of the US current account deficit. Investment seems to be picking up but savings is not, so the gap between US savings and US investment will rise. The US government deficit (including the social security cash flow surplus) is down slightly, but I suspect the improvement will at best offset the (expected) fall in household savings. Conclusion: an imbalanced global economy will get more imbalanced in the second half of 2005. The China's
current account surplus: still rising. The pick up in business investment is welcome. But I would be much happier if US savings was financing US investment, and there was more evidence that the US consumer was not the only engine of the world's demand growth. Put differently, I would rather see rather see 30% plus y/y growth in Chinese imports and 15% y/y growth in Chinese exports than 15% y/y growth in Chinese imports and 30% y/y growth in exports. Despite the brief excitement created by the dollar's fall last year, it kind of feels like little fundamental has changed (economically speaking) since last summer, apart from the fact that oil is now quite a bit higher, the US current account deficit is a bit wider, and the renminbi is a worth a tiny bit more.
Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
Subscriber Login
Also on RGE Monitor
Recent Posts:
Topics
Archives
Restoring Financial Stability
How to Repair a Failed System A Bird's-Eye View—The
Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Causes and Remedies
Agenda for Reform
Building an International Monetary and Financial System for the 21st Century
by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Download the ebook |
||||||||||||