Subscribe to our e-mail newsletter

sign up

Can the yen ever be the un-dollar?

Brad Setser | Feb 23, 2007

Binky Chadha and my friend Jens Nystedt of Deutsche Bank think so.

In a world where the (net) global flow of capital is increasingly dominated by official flows (Chadha and Nystedt note "emerging market central banks
are the largest participants in FX markets"), the yen's unpopularity as a reserve asset has certainly contributed to the yen's weakness.   Emerging markets in particular are adding to the reserves (and oil funds) at an enormous pace, yet rarely hold many yen in their portfolio.

That means, among other things, that FDI inflows from Japan get turned into demand for euros and dollars by actors like the PBoC.  Remember, China uses, in aggregate, net FDI inflows, to finance reserve accumulation, as its domestic savings is more than enough to finance its (high) level of domestic investment.

A lot of money has flowed into the euro and pound recently.  I estimate that euro and pound reserves increased by close to $300b in 2005, and close to $200b in 2006.  Those flows are one reason for pound and euro strength.   Central banks looking for alternatives to the dollar have flooded into Europe -- and shied away from Japan.

Chadha and Nystedt argue that this should change.   The right time to buy euro was in 2001, when the euro was weak.   Not in late 2004, when the euro was strong -- or, for that matter, in 2007.   By the same token, there has rarely been a better time to buy yen.   

Sure, yen interest rates are low, but, over time, there is probably a greater chance that the yen will appreciate v. the euro than that it will fall even further.  If your un-dollar choice is euro or yen, you currently can get a lot of yen for your buck, so to speak.


Register for RGE EconoMonitors

Access to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber.

Register for RGE EconoMonitors

Learn more about subscribing to RGE Monitor