If US investors start buying foreign securities like they buy foreign cars, watch out
Brad Setser
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Feb 15, 2007
There is no way to put a positive gloss on the December TIC report. Total inflows -- counting short and long-term flows -- were negative. The foreign securities bought by US private investors abroad exceeded the US securities bought by private investors abroad; net private were very negative. Long-term private outflows (net) were around $8.4b, and short-term private outflows (net) were $34.1b. Absent substantial net official inflows ($24b of long-term purchases, $31.5b total) the overall totals would have been far worse. Isabelle Lindenmayer of the Wall Street Journal put it well. "The TIC report suggests U.S. investors are starting to find confidence and value in foreign securities much the same way U.S. consumers have long found reliability and thrift from Toyotas and Hondas. Just as worrisome, foreign investors, too, may be starting to lose their appetite for U.S. securities. ... Though the TIC data are an imprecise gauge, they don't bode well for the U.S. ability to finance its huge trade and current account deficits in the long term, said analysts." Our unnamed analysts are stating the obvious. To finance a roughly $850-900b current account deficit, you need need over $70b of net inflows a month. Not zero. And certainly not a net outflow of $11b. Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
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