The rewards for guestimating the currency composition of China’s reserves pale relative to the rewards for lending your credibility to China’s effort to clean up and recapitalize its banking system.    

But my estimates of the currency composition of China’s reserves have been widely cited.  So I feel rather exposed to the risk that they may prove to be way off.  Kind of like Goldman should ICBC go belly up when China’s current boom ends …

So here is the due diligence behind my estimate.