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Are US trade politics really driven by the profits US banks hope to earn in China?

Brad Setser | Oct 6, 2006

Guy de Jonquières seems to think so.  He argues that US-Chinese bilateral relationship politics will be driven by primarily by the speed of China’s financial sector reform: 

Durable improvement in bilateral economic relations will hinge on whether China buys into Mr Paulson’s core agenda of faster market-oriented reforms, particularly of its financial system.

If “particularly the financial system” means that the most important factor in the US/ Chinese relationship will be how quickly China liberalizes its domestic interest rates and how quickly it allows foreign bankers to buy into China’s banking system I think de Jonquières is a bit off.     

I would bet that the pace at which China liberalizes its domestic financial system – and particularly its willingness to allow US banks to compete directly with China’s domestic banks -- will prove to have limited political resonance in the US.    That also applies to opening up China’s broader financial system, and letting non-Chinese firms offer Chinese savers alternatives to bank deposits.  Those reforms may have a big impact over the long-term if they lead to changes in how Chinese savings is allocated inside the Chinese economy, but I doubt their short-term political resonance.    

And if it turns out that the rational thing to do at current exchange rates is to allocate capital to China's export sector, they might not even have much of a long-term impact. 


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