The q1 current account deficit got revised up (income and transfers always looked a bit low).   And q2  is a bit bigger than q1.     As Lex notes, the US income balance is pretty clearly now in the red.  

And it isn’t hard to see how the q3 and q4 current account deficits could be large enough to bring the annual total up to around $900b.     

The July trade deficit was $68b.   Suppose the monthly trade deficit stays constant – the US oil bill is likely to fall a bit in October, if not before.  But I am not yet totally convinced the non-oil balance has stabilized (the pace of deterioration clearly has slowed).   That works out to quarterly trade deficit of $204b.   

The deficit in income payments and transfers was around $25b in q2.  Suppose it rises to $30b in q3 and q4.   Personally, I think it will be bigger in q4 …  more debt and higher interest rates usually mean more interest payments. 

That would imply a current account deficit of around $235b in q3 and q4, which, combined with a $213b deficit in q1 and a $218b deficit in q2 would push the overall deficit up to around $900b.  

The current account data release doesn’t tell us much about the trade deficit.   But it does tell as a bit about the income balance – and the sources of financing that have allowed the US to run large ongoing deficits.    A few things caught my eye ….