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Dollar depreciation has increased exports. But Andrew Tilton is also on to something ... to export you need to invest in your export sector

Brad Setser | Aug 18, 2006

US exports are enjoying their strongest three-year period of growth since 1987-89.    If growth rate of the first half of the year is sustained, the cumulative increase in US exports between the end of 2003 and the end of 2006 will be around 42%.   The increase from the end of 86 to the end of 89 was around 57%. 

I remained amazed that so many people think that dollar depreciation has had no impact. 

87-89 was also a period of dollar weakness.    As is the current period. Consider the following graph.

andrewtildo_1.png

 The connection between dollar depreciation and a surge in export growth (with a llag) seems pretty clear.


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