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The first quarter current account statistics are kind to the USA

Brad Setser | Jun 16, 2006

The 2005 current account deficit was revised down to $791.5b or so.

The q1 2006 deficit was $208.7b -- down from $223.1b in q4.   We knew the trade balance improved a bit.  But the income balance also improved, contrary to my expectations.  And the transfers deficit went down.

To my surprise, net official flows (recorded central bank flows) to the US in 2005 were revised down, to $199.5b.   Adding in the growth in central bank dollar deposits in the BIS data increases the known increase in dollar reserves by $80b or so.  But $280b in dollar reserve growth is very, very small relative to my and most other estimates for the total increase in official assets in 2005 -- which, including all Saudi central bank assets, likely topped $650b.  Something still doesn't add up.

Here though the Q1 data makes more sense.  Recorded official inflows to the US were nearly $75b.    FDI flows also reversed.  In 2005, inflows into the US topped outflows by about $100b.   Thank you Homeland Investment Act.   Outflows dried up.   In q1, outflows once again topped inflows by about $30b.   That increased the US borrowing need ...  


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