Not quite as bad as I expected (the April trade numbers)
Brad Setser
|
Jun 9, 2006
A $63.4b trade deficit isn't small. But it is a bit smaller than the average $65b deficit of the fourth quarter. And, in all honesty, I expected a bit higher number. The dog that didn't bark: oil Oil imports (seasonally adjusted) rose to $23.85b in April, but I certainly expected a bit higher number. The average US oil import price was $56.8 a barrel. The import price is typically lower than the spot price. But it was well below the $70 average market price in April -- I don't think the US oil import bill has peaked. As importantly, oil import volumes in April were quite weak. That shows up if you look the exhibit showing real oil imports, which were $10.9b in April v $12.5b in January. It also shows up in Exhibit 17, which shows the volume of all imported petroleum products. The US imported 5% less this April than it did last April, And overall imports so far this year, in volume terms, are down 3.3%. My gut says that this is evidence that higher prices are having an impact. But there also may be some industry specific factors at work -- no storage, a mild winter and so on. Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
Subscriber Login
Also on RGE Monitor
Recent Posts:
Topics
Archives
Restoring Financial Stability
How to Repair a Failed System A Bird's-Eye View—The
Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Causes and Remedies
Agenda for Reform
Building an International Monetary and Financial System for the 21st Century
by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Download the ebook |
||||||||||||