China's March trade surplus topped $11b - and its goods exports were a very impressive $78 billion.  China February surplus was about $2.5 billion, and its exports only 54.1 billion.  China had an impressive surplus in January, when its exports were $65 billion ...

I mention these numbers because I suspect the big fall in Chinese exports in February holds clues to interpreting the US February trade data.

February is a short month, and the US tends to import more in the fall than in the winter.   The holiday shopping season.    That is why seasonal adjustment matters.

But the US data - even with seasonal adjustment - sometimes shows a bit of month to month volatility.   Particularly in the first quarter.   Often because of the Chinese new year. 

Last year, non-oil imports fell by about $6 billion in March (compared to February).  Chalk it up largely to the impact of the Chinese new year - though there was also a slowdown in non-oil import growth/ an inventory correction going last winter and spring.

This year, the Chinese new year showed up in the February data.  Non-oil imports fell by about $4.6 billion, driving a $4.2 billion fall in overall imports.  That fall explains the fall in the United States overall deficit, which shrank from a very large $68.6b to an almost as large $65.7b.