France: The most “Anglo-Saxon” of the big 3 continental economies
Brad Setser
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Mar 31, 2006
That's a headline you won't see in the financial or popular press. The basic narrative is already established: France won't change, and as a result, will lag behind the more flexible "Anglo-Saxon" economies. French labor market and social institutions certainly do differ from those in the US. Personally, I think the US could learn a thing or two from France's health care system (I have direct experience with both systems, having lived in both countries). And I suspect France could learn a thing or two from the US as well. Not all aspects of the French model are working right now. But a bit of modesty is in order too. The US hasn't exactly done much better creating private-sector jobs than France - and some private sector jobs stem from a surge in government spending, as Kash notes. The case for emulating the American model would be far stronger is the gains from higher productivity were broadly shared. Massive structural reform so that CEO productivity (and pay) can go up isn't going to appeal to everyone. But the established narrative that focuses on France's resistance to market liberalization - Anglo-Saxonization, so to speak - misses one key fact: France, despite the absence of reform, has enjoyed domestic-demand led growth for the last ten years. Sort of like the US. Germany has done more reform but has far less growth in domestic demand. And Italy lags in all respects. France isn't the America of the Eurozone. Spain wins that title. Huge housing boom. Huge current account deficit. But France runs second - at least if you look at most macroeconomic variables. French housing prices are frothy. See this BNP report on Spain - it provides lots of useful cross-country comparison. French domestic demand growth hasn't kept pace with the US, but it has far outpaced domestic demand growth in Germany. It certainly tops the Eurozone average. Imports are growing faster than exports. And France's current account balance has shifted from a surplus to a deficit. UPDATE. Daniel Gros has a nice chart on p. 7 of this .pdf showing the correlation between European housing prices and European current account deficits. In other words, France has done what the US now wants from the rest of the eurozone: it has grown on basis of domestic demand, not exports. Consider the evidence: Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
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