The 2005 current account deficit: $805 billion. or 6.4% of US GDP

That is a bit smaller than I expected.    The q3 deficit was revised down.  Reinsurance payments were higher than initially forecast, reducing the transfers deficit.   And the income balance was also revised.

The q4 2005 current account deficit: $225 billion, or 7% of GDP.  In line with my expectations.

The minimum credible forecast for the 2006 current account deficit (barring a recession): $900 billion.    ($225*4)

But $900 billion is actually low, for two reasons:

First, it assumes a 2006 hurricane will keep the transfers deficit down.  Without reinsurance payments, the 2005 transfers deficit would have been close to $100b.

Second, it ignores the fact that the income balance is poised to turn negative.

FDI in the US continues to do badly, earning (if you believe the data) only about ½ as much as US direct investment abroad ($249b in v $119 in 05).  But the gap isn't growing. It was $128b in 2004, and $130b in 2005.  

To frame it slightly differently, the stock of "dark matter" from excess returns on US FDI abroad increased by $40b, from 2560b to $2600b (Updated, i did the initial calculation wrong).  Even Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger would have to concede that a $40b increase in "dark" matter is nowhere large enough to offset a $805b deficit.

But US government payments to foreigners are rising, as "other" payments.   Forecasting out current trends implies a $65b increase in those payments in 2006.  I think that is too low, but I'll set that point aside.    US interest income on the money it has lent out abroad are also rising, so a simple linear forecast suggests a "net" swing in interest income of only $15-20b.