The market thinks that the (bad) q4 GDP number is old news; the economy is looking far better in q1.   The market is also banking on stronger export growth to help support US growth in 2006.  See Justin Lahart.   I hope they are not banking on a mirage.

There isn't much in the q4 data that supports the argument that US export growth is accelerating.   The quarterly data is actually more consistent with a pick up in US imports, and a slowdown in US exports.

Exports were up 7.5% in q1, 10.7% in q2, 2.5% in q3 and 2.4% in q4.   Imports were up 7.4% in q1, fell 0.3% in q2, rose 2.4% in q3 and rose another 9.1% in q4.

Neither the fall in import growth in q2 nor the rise in q4 matches up with consumption growth - personal consumption grew by 3.5% in q1, 3.4% in q2, 4.1% in q3 and 1.1% in q4.  All numbers are q/q.   And they all can be visualized more easily if you take a look at the decomposition of GDP growth that Dr. Hamilton of Econbrowser has put together.