US November trade data
Brad Setser
|
Jan 12, 2006
$64.2 billion is not $68.1 billion. But it is still kind of large. Another $65 billion deficit in December, and the annual trade deficit will reach $726 billion. That works out to a fourth quarter trade deficit of $197.5 billion, and, by my estimates, a quarterly current account deficit of $229.5 billion (I estimate transfers at -22, and income at -10). Sum that up, and the current account deficit for 2005 will come in around $821 billion. A $65 billion trade deficit over all of 2006 would generate a trade deficit of $780 billion, and, by my estimates, a current account deficit of $940 billion. That is - in my estimation - what happens even if exports grow fast enough to keep the average quarterly 2006 trade deficit in 2006 at a level slightly below its likely level in the fourth quarter of 2005. Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
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