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Emerging market bubble watch – and a word or two on dark matter

Brad Setser | Dec 8, 2005

Ecuador is the kind of country that can borrow only when times are really, really good for emerging economies.  It has been and - as far as I can tell - remains politically dysfunctional.   It tends to default on its external debt regularly.  But right now there is - as Desmond Lachman suggests in Paul Blustein's Washington Post article - ""just a huge amount of money sloshing around looking for a place to go." 

I would say looking for a place to go that generates a bit more yield than US Treasuries - the easy money from borrowing short and lending long to the US government is now a distant memory.   But there is still money to be made lending to  a few governments.   "Ecuador's Eurobond issuance is one of my preferred obscure economic indicators.  It seems to correlate well with a bit of froth in emerging market land.

Ecuador last issued a Eurobond (if memory serves) in 1997, a couple of years after doing its Brady deal.  That was the peak of the emerging market boom of the 1990s, more or less.   It defaulted in late 1999, when commodity prices tumbled and capital flows to emerging markets dried up.   I would not be surprised if it defaults in 2007 or 2008.


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