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Dollar liquidity … and petrodollars.

Brad Setser | Dec 3, 2005

Yes, I am petrodollar obsessed.   But setting China aside, this year's rise in oil prices has shifted the world's current account surplus toward the middle east and Russia in a big way.   Saudi Arabia and Russia each look set to run current account surpluses of around $100 billion - a bit smaller than China's surplus in dollar terms, but far larger as a share of GDP.

Both are adding to their reserves - though Saudi Arabia defines its reserves rather narrowly, so you need to look on the broader balance sheet of the Saudi Monetary Authority to find the surge in Saudi official assets.  And neither seems to hold their reserves in custodial accounts at the New York Fed, nor to invest in ways that register in the US TIC data.

You don't need to take my word for it: look at this HVB publication.  Dr. Harm Bandholz also has noticed the gap between observed flows to the US (all from London and the Caribbean) and the countries that actually have funds to lend to the US (not the UK or the Caribbean).  That's why I am a bit suspicious of arguments that there has been a big fall in dollar liquidity


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