Cannot say that I am totally surprised by a record monthly trade deficit.  I have long argued that the deficit was likely to continue to expand.

In September, goods exports were down $3.3 billion; goods imports up $3.8 billion.  That produces a bigger deficit even if the "services" surplus expanded.   All in all the US imported $171.3 billion, and exported $105.2 billion.  

What I does surprise me is that -- on preliminary examination -- most of the expansion of the trade deficit does not seem to be the product of Katrina.

Exports of civil aircraft fell by $2.4b.  August was a good month, September was a bad one.   That trumped small Katrina related falls in agricultural exports (the fall was a bit smaller than I expected, but my expectations had no real grounding in data) and exports of "industrial supplies" like chemicals.   No petroleum, no basic chemical industry. 

Oil imports rose by about $1 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, mostly because of higher prices. [UPDATE: Higher natural gas imports added about a billion as well.]  I suspect the US should expect another increase when the October data comes out, with higher volumes contributing as well.

But non-oil non-gas goods imports also shot up -- rising almost $2 billion [UPDATED, Revised down to reflect higher gas imports].  That to me is the most signficant move, as I have consistently been puzzled by the absence of monthly growth in non-oil imports number.  Now it looks like that non-oil imports are heading up -- as one would expect with growing US consumption.  [UPDATE:  the rise in non-oil goods imports may also reflect a rise in non-petroleum energy imports ...  I need to explore this further][UPDATE 2: Natural gas imports are up by about a billion ... ]

Detroit's troubles probably aren't helping here either -- though that may be a bigger story in the October data.