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China’s crazy numbers

Brad Setser | Oct 23, 2005

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian crisis.  And China probably grew faster than the government acknowledged in 2003 - and perhaps is growing faster than the headline numbers say now. 

Lots of numbers just don't add up.

But one thing is certainly true - despite the title of this New York Times article ("Consumer demand at home keeps China's factories humming ... "), consumption growth has not been driving the Chinese economy this year.


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