That is the message hidden inside the August trade release, which showed the US monthly trade deficit widen to $59 billion, as expected, on the back of a higher oil import bill.

Oil imports - measured by volume - have increased only 1.6% this year, compared to 5.7% in 2004 and 7.3% in 2005.  I guess folks are listening to the President, and putting on their sweaters, so to speak. 

US exports to Canada are growing by 12%, to Europe as a whole by 11% and to the (sclerotic, no growth, pick your nasty adjective) eurozone by 9%. (Corrected, earlier I had 5%, the Pacific Rim number here by accident) .

US exports to the Pacific Rim, by contrast are growing only by 5%.  Exports to China are up more, by 17%, but that may just reflect the shift in assembly of electronic goods with US made components to China.   US exports to the rest of the Pacific Rim are up only 3%. 

US exports to the OPEC countries - where the US competes with Europe - are up a whooping 47%.   All data is from the BEA. 

What is the likely explanation for the increase in US exports?  

Simple.  Falls in the dollar work with a lag, and US exports to these regions - not necessarily the fastest growing economies of the world - are benefiting from the weak dollar at the end of last year.    The revival of demand for Boeing planes also clearly helps - though be ware, it seems like Boeing only shipped two planes in September, so aircraft exports next month are expected to be weak. 

Continues