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Global Imbalances are Growing and Increasing the Risk of a Disorderly Adjustment and Hard Landing

Nouriel Roubini | Aug 24, 2005

Last February Brad Setser and I wrote a paper on the risks of an unraveling of the Bretton Woods II regime and of a disorderly adjustment of the global current account imbalances. Since then the US dollar has sharply rallied and US long term interest rates have remained relatively flat and low. To those with panglossian or benign views of the global imbalances and to supporters of view of the long term stability of the BW2 regime, the financial developments of the last few months appear as a proof that global imbalances are not something we need to worry about. I will instead make the case here that we need to seriously worry - even more than before - about such imbalances and the risks of their disorderly unraveling.

 


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