Tomorrow Thursday September 13th at 3.30pm I will give a talk at the IMF on The Risk of a U.S. Hard Landing and Implications for the Global Economy and Financial Markets. If you are in Washington DC this talk is open to the public subject to RSVP. The IMF announcement of this talk follows:

Nouriel Roubini has been warning for over a year of the likelihood of a recession in the United States and a global hard landing. In this talk, Professor Roubini provides an updated assessment of the U.S. and global economic and financial conditions, particularly after the recent release of U.S. employment data for August. He will discuss the basis for his predictions that home prices will fall by 15% or more over the next two years and that financial markets turmoil will get worse—not better—in the next few months. Roubini will also discuss what impact actions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks can have and whether the rest of the world can decouple from a U.S. hard landing. 
 

The full video of the talk will be avaialable on the IMF web site (www.imf.org) in the next few days. I will let you know when it is posted. 

Important disclaimer: of course the IMF does not agree with my views on the risk of a U.S. hard landing; they are of the view that the U.S. will have a soft landing even if the downside risks to growth are rising. They are only giving me a platform to present and discuss my views. So the views expressed at this talk are strictly and only mine. 

Friday Morning Update: The August U.S. retail sales data announced today strongly confirm the coming retrenchment of private consumption. Excluding auto sales - that were artificially boosted by massive private discounts by automakers to get rid of the inventory of 2007 autos before the 2008 season is launched - retail sales fell 0.4%. Even excluding gasoline sales - that were down due to a fall in prices - retail sales fell 0.1%. So the retrenchment of the US saving-less and debt-burdened consumer is starting in earnest. And expect auto sales to fall - after the artificial spike in August - in the fall as they have since January: with the slowdown in income and jobs consumers are starting to cut back on "big ticket" expenses first: autos, consumer durables and, of course, further cutbacks in home purchases.