Here are some of the "bullish" headlines in the newswires today: they confirm what I have been saying all along: it is a suckers' rally in the stock market and we are headed towards a nasty recession. Expect a nasty bear market in equities - in the average recession the S&P falls by 28% - once the delusional dream of perma bull leads them to wake up the reality of the nasty and deep recession ahead:

• Services in U.S. Grow at Slowest Pace in Three Years Service industries in the U.S. expanded at the slowest pace in more than three years in September as the housing slump deepened. 
• Wal-Mart Cuts September Sales Growth Estimate to 1.3% Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, unexpectedly lowered its estimate for U.S. comparable-store sales growth in September
• Orders to U.S. Factories Were Unchanged in August after a 1% Decline Orders placed with U.S. manufacturers were unchanged in August, the second month without an increase, suggesting a slowdown in production as the economy cools.
• ADP shows 'sluggish' gains of 78,000 jobs  The U.S. economy added about 78,000 private-sector jobs in September, another month of "sluggish" hiring, according to the monthly ADP employment report released Wednesday.
• Manhattan Co-Op Apartment Prices Dip 16% as Buyers Favor Condos (Bloomberg) Manhattan cooperative apartment prices ell 16 percent in the third quarter as more New Yorkers avoided lengthy co-op approval proceedings by opting for condominiums that typically have fewer regulations and higher prices. he average price of a co-op, in buildings where tenants owncorporation shares and set rules, fell to $1.09 million from a record $1.3 million in the second quarter.

As I argued in my New York Magazine interview last week:

"Does it matter that co-ops make up a large majority of the housing stock in Manhattan?
There’s a glut of new condos, and it’s getting worse. This will affect both condo and co-op prices. A home is a home, and excess supply leads to prices falling."

So, the latest story from Bloomberg on the NYC housing market confirms it all. And wait until a glut of 20K new  condo units in NYC hits the market next year in a market whose total yearly sales of new and old condos is only 10K.

And, after the free $40k swimming pools and $99K gift certificates on a $400K home, the latest from the desperate home bulders is the following: a free luxury Lexus SUV for a $379K home in Omaha (see comments section of my last blog). Indeed, given the glut of gas guzzling SUVs a new fancy Lexus is probably worth a negative dollar amount in present  discounted value terms. So, this is another suckers' offer from the home builders after a pletora of other weird sellers' side incentives.

All these "good news" today follow yesterday's other good news:

• Data from the ICSC-UBS Chain Store Sales Index shows such same store sales falling for the 4th week in a row, a clear signal of poor September retail sales;
• Same mediocre September sales figures - flat in September relative to August - are signaled by the Redbook index published today;
• September auto sales were also overall quite disappointing.  

And if anyone wants to delude oneself believing that oil back to $60 - after it briefly spike to $78 during the Lebanon war - will rescue the economy, he/she must be dreaming: oil at $60 is still very high relative to the levels of years ago; and it represents a triple whammy on consumers together with a busting housing market and the delayed effects of the increase in the Fed Funds rate. 

So, based on all these data I rest my case: it is recession ahead; period!

My long interview with CBS Evening News is now available online; some soundbites from that interview will be broadcast on Thursday on the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric; I guess you have made it when you are on TV with Katie...!