How useful are economic statistics?
Felix Salmon
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Jan 26, 2007
Peter Coy has a mea culpa on the subject of housing statistics:
Mark Thoma responds:
It's certainly true that the financial press corps, and indeed the press corps in general, has something of an addiction to authoritative-seeming numbers, even when those numbers are very, very far from authoritative. (Don't even get me started on counterfeiting statistics.) But how do we work out how useful any given statistic is? There are at least two approaches: Coy would like to look at the margin of error, while Thoma seems to be more interested in whether there have historically been large random jumps from month to month in the time series. One might think the two are more or less the same thing, but in my experience, not so much: especially when it comes to government statistics, there seems, anecdotally, to be less volatility in the time series than one would expect from the margins of error reported. (Not that I'm accusing anybody of massaging data, of course. I'd never dream that that might happen.) The fact is that reporters emphasize the statistics which the market cares the most about. And the market just doesn't care much about backward-looking and very reliable data. For that reason, it's actually hard to be an economic reporter. You want to be reliable, but at the same time you want to be useful and timely. The two impulses are at cross purposes with each other, and there are always trade-offs. Register for RGE EconoMonitorsAccess to some RGE EconoMonitors, including Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, is reserved for registered users, so sign up now to read and comment on current postings. These writings are only a small part of the insights and commentary available through RGE Monitor. Contact us today at info@rgemonitor.com or 212.645.0010 to learn more about becoming a full subscriber. |
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