Iran is investing in nuclear technology. Iran says that the technology is for nuclear power, not nuclear weapons. But Iran can't need nuclear power, because it's swimming in oil. Therefore, Iran is clearly interested in building nuclear weapons. The syllogism is familiar, but, according to a new paper by Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins, it's flawed:

We define Iran’s export decline rate (edr) as its summed rates of depletion and domestic demand growth, which we find equals 10 –12%. We estimate marginal cost per barrel for additions to Irani production capacity, from which we derive the ‘‘standstill’’ investment required to offset edr. We then compare the standstill investment to actual investment, which has been inadequate to offset edr. Even if a relatively optimistic schedule of future capacity addition is met, the ratio of 2011 to 2006 exports will be only 0.40 – 0.52. A more probable scenario is that, absent some change in Irani policy, this ratio will be 0.33– 0.46 with exports declining to zero by 2014 – 2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment, and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran’s problem, which has no relation to "peak oil."

In other words, Iran is running out of oil – especially if domestic demand continues to grow at present rates, and domestic investment in the oil industry continues to lag. Writes Stern:

Iran is guilty of NPT deceptions, but it cannot be inferred from this that all Irani claims must be false. The regime’s dependence on export revenue suggests that it could need nuclear power as badly as it claims. Recent analyses by former National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) officials project that oil exports could go to zero within 12–19 years. It therefore seems possible that Iran’s claim to need nuclear power might be genuine, an indicator of distress from anticipated export revenue shortfalls.

This does not mean, of course, that Iran should be taken at its word. But it's certainly an interesting possibility. If the outright liar Saddam Hussein was telling the truth about WMDs, maybe the mendacious Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is telling the truth about nukes?

Iran's Nuclear Politics: Playing Off the Great Powers Against Each Other