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Payrolls: "Essentially unchanged"

Felix Salmon | Oct 6, 2006

The markets love to run around like headless chickens on the first Friday of the month, when non-farm payrolls are released. This month's are weaker than expected! But unemployment fell! Sell! Buy! Sell!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics itself seems to be much more sanguine:

Nonfarm payroll employment held steady... the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged... The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were essentially unchanged... Over the month, the unemployment rates for most major worker groups showed little or no change... Total employment was essentially unchanged... Over the year, the labor force participation rate was unchanged... Among the marginally attached, there were 325,000 discouraged workers in September, about unchanged from a year earlier...

Get the picture?

It is worth noting the mother of all revisions in the offing, however:

The report also showed job growth during the 12 months ended in March may have been about 45 percent higher than previously reported. In a preliminary estimate, the Labor Department said payrolls for the 12 months ended in March 2006 will be revised higher by 810,000, the biggest revision since the Labor Department started benchmarking numbers in 1991. Currently, figures show 1.8 million jobs were added during that time. The final estimate will be issued in February.

U.S. Employment Cycle: Coming of Wage or Coming of Age?


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